ACT Research: Amid Loose Market Balance, Carriers Start Tapping the Brakes on Capacity
COLUMBUS, IN — The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index, showed the Supply-Demand Balance and volumes decreased, while freight rates continue to decline.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index is a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers. ACT Research converts responses into diffusion indexes, where the neutral or flat activity level is 50. Please contact us at trucks@actresearch.net if you are a for-hire executive interested in participating. In return, participants receive a detailed monthly analysis of the survey data, including Volumes, Freight Rates, Driver Availability, Capacity, Productivity and Purchasing Intentions, plus a complimentary copy of ACT’s Transportation Digest report.
Concerning volume, Tim Denoyer, Vice President & Senior Analyst at ACT Research, commented, “Volumes softened to the lowest levels seen since March and April of 2020, on tepid consumer demand, overstocked retail inventories, and declining imports. At least there are signs of progress on destocking.”
Regarding the supply-demand balance, Denoyer said, “The reading continues to reflect a loose trucking market and a late stage in the freight cycle. But capacity growth slowed sharply among our respondents, who represent sizable fleets, which will help us transition from this oversupplied stage of the cycle back into the early stage when rates recover.”
On rates, he noted, “Pricing power clearly shifted to shippers over the course of 2022, but we see a slower decline this month which may be a sign the bottoming process is beginning, consistent with the slowing in capacity growth.”
The ACT Freight Forecast provides forecasts for spot truckload rates by trailer type for four to six quarters and truck volumes and contract rates for three years for the truckload, less-than-truckload and intermodal segments of the transportation industry. In 2019, the average accuracy of the report’s truckload spot rate forecasts was 98%. The ACT Research Freight Forecast uses equipment capacity modeling and the firm’s economics expertise to provide unprecedented visibility for the future of freight rates, helping businesses in transportation and logistics management plan for the future with confidence.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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More information about ACT’s Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK.
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