ACT Research: Analysts Forecast Higher Trailer Build in 2023 and 2024
According to this quarter’s issue of ACT Research’s Trailer Components & Raw Materials Forecast, ACT’s US trailer forecasts for 2023 increased during the past three months. The 2024 forecast is now higher, reflecting higher build in 2023 and 2024, with the economy continuing to outperform expectations, higher GDP and freight forecasts, and more normalized supply chains.
“Build in the last three months (May-July) of 81,700 units was 7% higher than the same three-month period last year, while net orders of 26,300 trailers were about 58% lower for the May-to-July-2023 period, versus the same three months in 2022,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director-CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “Providing better context for market activity, order backlogs at 157,300 units were 15% lower than the 184,900 units pending production last year.”
McNealy concluded, “As part of our recent trailer-maker survey, we asked about 2024 orderbook openings and dealer inventory levels. Based on their responses, it appears that about 35% of the industry’s Q1’24 books have opened, with limited slots available beyond that. Regarding dealer inventories, answers were product dependent, with generalist trailer levels higher than specialty trailer inventory levels.”
ACT Research’s U.S. New Trailer Components & Materials Forecast provides those in the trailer production supply chain, as well as those who invest in said suppliers and commodities, with forecast quantities of components and raw materials required to support the trailer forecast for the coming five years. It includes near-term quarterly predictions for two years, while the latter three years of the forecast are shown in annual details. Additionally, analysis is segmented into two categories: those needed for the structural composition of new trailers and those used in the production of undercarriage assembly.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.