ACT Research: Anticipating Inbound Recession, September Forecasts Unchanged
In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported essentially unchanged forecasts from last month — demand remains healthy, production remains constrained, and freight rates and volumes managed to squeak out small improvements compared to August.
The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report includes a relevant but high-level forecast summary, complete with transportation insights for use by commercial vehicle dealer executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total US trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the US macro economy.
According to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, “We’re hardly at the ‘living on a prayer’ stage when it comes to our outlook, but as the old investing maxim goes: don’t fight the Fed.” Elaborating, he said, “We believe wage inflation needs to moderate before the Fed can begin turning away from tighter monetary policy. As long as the jobs reports remains strong, the harder it may be to tame wage inflation — which may lead to more-aggressive-for-longer rate hikes and worse than expected economic outcomes.” He concluded, “As it has been for several months, a mild recession centered in early 2023 remains our base case.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 68th Seminar is scheduled for February 21–23, 2023. Look for more details on this event over the coming months and save the date for February’s event. When details are available, they may be found at www.actresearch.net.
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