ACT Research: Class 8 Tractor Dashboard Rises in July after Four Negative Months
According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, the top line on the Class 8 Tractor Dashboard improved in July to a neutral -2 reading, closing out four consecutive months of moderately downbeat readings.
The report, which combines proprietary ACT data and analysis from a wide variety of sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report is designed as a quick look at transportation insights for use by fleet and trucking executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the US trailer market, used truck sales information, and an overview of the US macro economy.
“Our interpretation is a gradual erosion for Class 8 market demand as we look to 2023, but no ‘spiral down’ and certainly not a ‘cliff event’,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “Without typical late-cycle in place, we think the dashboard reading suggests a better outcome for Class 8 than was the case in our last two recessions (COVID 2020 and the 2008–2009 Great Recession).”
When asked about underlying takeaways, Vieth concluded, “We saw a jump in the Trucking Stock Index, from negative to positive territory, and a modest improvement in the DAT loads/truck metric. Of the 15 variables in the dashboard, four were at ‘positive’ levels, up from just two in June, even as the number of variables in ‘negative’ territory held steady at six.” He also mentioned, “We believe the dashboard offers a three- to six-month forward-looking window into conditions in the US tractor market. We always warn it’s never wise to forecast on the basis of just one indicator, or even an aggregate of indicators. That said, the ‘Green Minus Red Tally’ has successfully signaled inflection points in the past, so there is a track record of success.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 68th Seminar is scheduled for February 21–23, 2023. Look for more details on this event over the coming months and save the date for February’s event. When details are available, they may be found at www.actresearch.net.
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