ACT Research: CV Industry Faced with Persistent Supply Shortages, Now Facing Omicron Variant
According to ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, despite rock-solid demand across the spectrum of forward-looking medium and heavy-duty vehicle market indicators, industry capacity remains range-bound across a broad front of supply-chain constraints, and now Omicron has emerged as a wildcard.
The N.A. CV OUTLOOK is a robust report that forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next 1–5 years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, as well as takes a deep dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production, and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.
According to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, “Ripples from pandemic-driven changes to economic relationships are still being felt in the form of constraints that are not localized and are beyond the CV industry’s ability to drive solutions.” He continued, “The explosion in demand for goods (semiconductors, steel) during a period of contagion has led to pandemic-driven failures in a globally reliant web of interrelated manufacturing supply chains. Scaling complex global networks when demand is booming during a period of constrained supply, globally, has proven inadequate to the task pandemic-to-date.”
Vieth added, “The emergence of the Delta variant of COVID exacerbated supply-chain constraints with manufacturing shutdowns across Southeast Asia through the second half of 2021. We now have to ask, ‘What impacts may arise with the new and more highly transmissible Omicron variant on the loose?’ Paradoxically, early reports indicate that while it appears to be more contagious, it also appears to be less deadly.” He concluded, “As with the broader pandemic, the risks would appear in the same asymmetric veins of strengthening demand and elevating supply risks. The period of above-trend goods consumption could extend even as the risk of supply-chain disruptions lingers. If early data showing reduced severity hold, the Omicron variant could accelerate activity, if it reduces broader pandemic risks and aids the recovery in labor supply.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 66th Seminar is scheduled for February 22–24, 2022. Focused on the continuous evolution and advancement of autonomous and powertrain technologies in the transportation and commercial vehicle markets, OUTLOOK Seminar 66 will feature key industry leaders from Ford, Transplace, TuSimple, and the EPA, with more being added to the agenda. February’s event features three panels (US Economics, Trucker & Transportation, and Autonomous Ecosystem), as well as a fireside chat with the EPA, discussions about fleet decarbonization, electric vehicle forecasts, and reviews of freight/transportation, Class 8, Classes 5–7, the US used truck and new US trailer markets. For information about OUTLOOK Seminar 66, click here. https://www.actresearch.net/seminar66/
ACT’s commercial electric vehicle study, Charging Forward: 2020–2024 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, was published on March 31, 2021, after months of extensive research. Utilizing industry expertise and analysis, as well as the input from a comprehensive list of key industry study participants, ACT Research has developed a critical guide for battery electric and fuel cell electric unit build and sales forecasts over the next two decades. With coverage of Classes 4–8 commercial vehicles, ACT has identified 14 market subsegments and more than 20 application types; this one-of-a-kind report is a must-have for those investing or investigating electric power opportunities. To learn more or to purchase this report, click here. https://www.actresearch.net/electric-vehicles-charge/
For more information about ACT’s NA Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, click here.
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