ACT Research: CV Industry Production Closed 2021 Strong, But Is It Sustainable?
According to ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, supply-chain constraints kept a lid on the industry’s ability to raise build rates through 2021, at least until December when a torrent of red-tagged/incomplete heavy-duty, and to a lesser extent medium-duty, units were finished.
The N.A. CV OUTLOOK is a robust report that forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next 1–5 years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, as well as takes a deep dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production, and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.
According to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, “One of the questions we have been asked consistently since releasing December data in January’s State of the Industry Classes 5–8 Vehicles report is, ‘Are December’s production rates sustainable?’.” He continued, “In an examination of semiconductor industry reporting, there is nothing to suggest any material change to the expected incremental path of recovery built into the forecasts: There were no reports of chip supply miracles at the end of 2021.” Vieth added, “Ongoing temporary shutdowns in the auto industry, comments from industry OEMs, suppliers, and new vehicle buyers all reinforce the sentiment that the +500 unit-per-day Class 8 production surge and the approximately 240 unit-per-day jump from the prevailing medium-duty production rate in December were the harvesting of low-hanging [and nearly built] fruit, which, in at least some cases, were still missing parts upon ‘completion’.”
Vieth noted, “There remains little solid intel as to the speed and timing of semiconductor capacity improvements in 2022. It is expected that the path will be an upward, if lumpy and back-end loaded, journey that coalesces into what should be a massive market in 2023, whipped up by pent-up demand early and prebuying late. Coming as no surprise and despite demand being in place, the strength of the market in 2023 will ultimately be dictated by the unwinding of tangled supply chains in 2022.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 66th Seminar is scheduled for February 22–24, 2022. Focused on the continuous evolution and advancement of autonomous and powertrain technologies in the transportation and commercial vehicle markets, OUTLOOK Seminar 66 will feature key industry leaders from Ford, Transplace, TuSimple, and the EPA, with more being added to the agenda. February’s event features three panels (US Economics, Trucker & Transportation, and Autonomous Ecosystem), as well as a fireside chat with the EPA, discussions about fleet decarbonization, electric vehicle forecasts, and reviews of freight/transportation, Class 8, Classes 5–7, the US used truck and new US trailer markets. For information about OUTLOOK Seminar 66, click here. https://www.actresearch.net/seminar66/
ACT Research recently completed POWER UP, a look at 7 global regions and more than 20 countries in a review of local regulations, infrastructure, and the impact on the adoption of battery and fuel cell electric commercial vehicles through 2040. This forecast is the first of its kind, a review of the decarbonization of commercial vehicles around the world. POWER UP is now available now at https://www.actresearch.net/power-up/
Additionally, ACT Research published an update to CHARGING FORWARD, a North American-centric battery and fuel cell electric vehicle adoption rate forecast, covering 23 vehicle applications, in Classes 4–8 commercial vehicles, through 2040. CHARGING FORWARD is considered by many industry leaders to be the apex of analysis and economic-based total cost of ownership modeling in the industry. And, it is now available for purchase at https://www.actresearch.net/electric-vehicles-charge/.
Currently, the team at ACT Research is engaged in a commercial autonomous vehicle multi-client study. Through this work, we will identify adoption rates and forecast autonomous Classes 4–8 vehicles through 2040. If you’re working to understand the economic value proposition or the unit economics of different autonomous models, participation in this study is a must. Learn more at https://www.actresearch.net/autonomous-cv/
For more information about ACT’s NA Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, click here.
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