ACT Research For-Hire Trucking Index Highlights Tight Supply-Demand Balance
The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index, with September data, showed a continuing tight trucking market, with volume and rate surges ongoing and driver availability deteriorating. September’s Volume Index rose to 70.7 (SA), while Pricing hit 71.3, a two-year high. With capacity and driver availability in contraction territory, at 46.6 and 30.6, respectively, the combination of strong demand and tight supply pushed the Supply-Demand Balance to its tightest level in survey history, now at 74.1.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index is a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers. ACT Research converts responses into diffusion indexes, where the neutral or flat activity level is 50. Please contact us at trucks@actresearch.net if you are a for-hire executive interested in participating. In return, participants receive a detailed monthly analysis of the survey data, including Volumes, Freight Rates, Capacity, Productivity and Purchasing Intentions, plus a complimentary copy of ACT’s Transportation Digest report.
Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst commented, “As capacity tightened further, volume (demand) also accelerated, tightening the market balance even further from already tight levels in recent months.”
He added, “Class 8 retail sales have improved recently, suggesting equipment capacity will gradually start to grow over the next few quarters, but the ongoing driver market capacity constraints argue for tightness to continue in the near-term. After the holiday season, we would expect some rebalancing as parked trucks are redeployed and extended unemployment benefits expire.”
Denoyer elaborated, “Strong demand from restocking should keep the market fairly tight in the near-term, with supply and demand likely to find better balance into the medium term.”
The ACT Freight Forecast provides forecasts for the direction of truck volumes and contract rates quarterly through 2020 with three years of annual forecasts for the truckload, less-than-truckload and intermodal segments of the transportation industry. For the truckload spot market, the report provides forecasts for the next twelve months. In 2019, the average accuracy of the report’s truckload spot rate forecasts was 98%. The ACT Research Freight Forecast uses equipment capacity modeling and the firm’s economics expertise to provide unprecedented visibility for the future of freight rates, helping businesses in transportation and logistics management plan for the future with confidence.
Additionally, ACT Research recently announced plans for a new multi-client study focusing on electrification of the commercial vehicle industry to be released in 2021. The scope of the study will include unit sales for the US and Canada, annually from 2020 to 2030, with single-year outlooks for 2035 and 2040. Class 8 truck and Classes 4–7 truck and bus segments will be considered, with additional segmentation encompassing step vans, conventional and low cab forward trucks, RV, school bus, yard spotter, transit bus categories, as well as the Class 8 straight, day cab, and sleeper subcategories. Our research will compare purchase and operational costs for diesel, battery, fuel cell, and hybrid powertrains in a rigorous comparative total cost of ownership (TCO) framework. It will also take into account concerns, such as infrastructure requirements and costs, regulation, and issues including maintenance, range, durability and vehicle and component replacement. For more details about how to participate in this study, including a full prospectus, contact Ian McGriff at imcgriff@actresearch.net or click here to let us know of your interest. (https://www.actresearch.net/cv-electrification-study-2021/)
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 64th Seminar is scheduled for February 23–25, 2021. Focused on the continuous evolution and advancement of power and energy changes in the transportation and commercial vehicle markets, OUTLOOK Seminar 64 will feature key industry leaders such as Ryan Reed of Wabash National, John Bennett from Meritor, Lance Riegel of Marvin Johnson, and Dominick Beckman from Hino Motors. Look for more details on this event over the coming months and save the date for February’s event.. Click here for seminar information. www.actresearch.net/seminar64
For more information about ACT’s Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK, please click here.
To learn more about other freight-related publications offered by ACT Research, click here.
