ACT Research: July Used Retail Sales Decrease in Line with but Greater than Expected
According to the latest State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3–8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research, used Class 8 retail sales faltered for the first time in three months in July, declining 7.8% m/m. Average mileage decreased 2%, with average price down 5% and age 1% m/m. Longer term, average volumes jumped 19%, price and age dropped 30% and 3%, respectively, and miles was flat.
“Sales usually dip a percentage point or two in July, so the decrease was in line with but greater than expectations,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “Including auctions and wholesales, the total market volume fell 28% m/m in July. Compared to July 2022, the retail market was 19% larger.”
Since July, some clarity has surfaced regarding two potential market-moving situations: “The UPS Teamsters ratified their contract, avoiding a disruptive strike. Closer to home, the bankruptcy of Yellow appears to be progressing in a disciplined, methodical, and orderly fashion. The company owns more than 14,000 trucks (primarily Class 8 day cabs) and nearly 45,000 trailers.”
Tam concluded, “Were all that equipment dumped into inventory at one time, the result conjures up images of a piranha feeding frenzy. While it is still very early in the process and there are no guarantees, this approach should help to minimize the negative impact on used equipment values.”
ACT’s Used Classes 3–8 report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs — Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers, to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.