ACT Research: Persistent Inflation and Interest Rate Hikes, Plus Potential for Recession
According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5–8 Report, persistent inflation, continued interest rate hikes, and the potential for recession remain overarching themes. A possible bright light in the dark: inflation may have peaked and supply-chain disruptions seem to be calming.
ACT’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5–8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6–7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6–7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs. This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.
According to Eric Crawford, ACT Research’s Vice President, Senior Analyst, “A modest 2023 recession centered on Q1’23 remains our base case, with a more material freight downturn having already started in Q2’22 and beginning to contract y/y in Q4’22.”
When asked about inflation, Crawford explained, “With core inflation slightly up m/m, it is premature to call a victory in the Fed’s fight to rein in inflation, although we are relieved the y/y rate did not accelerate further. We believe the Fed is likely to remain aggressive, but there is hope inflation will moderate enough to accommodate a neutral stance sooner, and we may be able to avoid a deeper recession in 2023.” Regarding supply-chain concerns, he commented, “The prevailing theme cycle-to-date has been one of whack-a-mole, in which as shortages of one component are alleviated, another issue arises. Russia and China issues aside, the past few months have seen modest-to-healthy OEM beats of their MD and HD build plans, at least in aggregate. Overall, we believe this suggests conditions are improving.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 67th Seminar is scheduled for August 23–25, 2022. The focus will be the potential impact of decarbonization and autonomous technology on commercial vehicles and on-highway transportation. Each event ACT shares its best-in-class data and forecast in presentations, as well as featuring guest speakers to dive into topics of interest for the benefit of attendees. The agenda includes key industry leaders, who will be announced at a later date. For more information about Seminar 67 Watts Under The Hood: Transportation Transformation, click here: https://www.actresearch.net/seminar-67/.
ACT Research recently completed POWER UP, a look at 7 global regions and more than 20 countries in a review of local regulations, infrastructure, and the impact on the adoption of battery and fuel cell electric commercial vehicles through 2040. This forecast is the first of its kind, a review of the decarbonization of commercial vehicles around the world. POWER UP is available now at https://www.actresearch.net/power-up/.
Additionally, ACT Research published an update to CHARGING FORWARD, a North American-centric battery and fuel cell electric vehicle adoption rate forecast, covering 23 vehicle applications, in Classes 4–8 commercial vehicles, through 2040. CHARGING FORWARD is considered by many industry leaders to be the apex of analysis and economic-based total cost of ownership modeling in the industry. And, it is now available for purchase at https://www.actresearch.net/electric-vehicles-charge/.
Click here for more information about ACT’s State of the Industry: Classes 5–8 Report.
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