ACT Research: Strong Pent-Up Class 8 Demand in Q4, Good Visibility Shifting into 2023
ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK reported on the anticipated surge in Class 8 orders coupled with robust pent-up demand at year end.
The N.A. CV OUTLOOK is a robust report that forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next 1–5 years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, as well as takes a deep dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production, and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.
According to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, “In line with expectations, the industry has witnessed a surge of Class 8 orders into year end. The resulting growth in order backlogs supports higher production and gives OEMs and suppliers good visibility through 1H’23.” He added, “With strong demand in place and inflation metrics moderating, we are now more convinced that first half build rates will be sustained deeper into 2H’23. The more hopeful view on inflation leads us to modestly raise our 2023 Class 8 build expectations.”
“Supporting the upwards Class 8 revision, we have tempered the severity of the decline we anticipate in freight activity in 2023.” Vieth concluded. “To be clear, we continue to expect a macro recession, and a slight y/y decline in Class 8 build, but recent economic reports and still strong Class 8 fundamentals have us thinking in a more encouraging direction.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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