ACT Research: U.S. Trailer Orders About 11% Lower YTD Compared to First 11 Months of 2020
November net US trailer orders of 32,103 units increased more than 84% from the previous month, but were nearly 20% lower compared to November of 2020. Before accounting for cancellations, new orders of 33.9k units were up more than 73% versus October, but 18% lower than the previous November, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailer Report. YTD net orders and new orders for the first 11 months of 2021 were both about 11% lower compared to the same time period in 2020, which included the COVID-stricken spring data.
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It is accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present, as well as a ready-to-use graph packet, to allow organizations in the trailer production supply chain, and those following the investment value of trailers, trailer OEMs, and suppliers to better understand the market.
“Trailer OEMs continue to be cautious regarding order acceptance, as they attempt to maintain acceptable delivery schedules given their available staffing and anticipated supply-chain support,” said Frank Maly, Director–CV Transportation Analysis and Research at ACT Research. He continued, “The difficulty of developing pricing in the current inflationary market conditions also impacts order acceptance. OEMs are attempting to avoid the renegotiation cycles that occurred earlier in 2021, and the best way to achieve that is to extend their orderboards in small steps as the year progresses.”
Maly added, “Expect trailer OEMs to continue closely managing their backlog horizons, which now edge into the second half of 2022 at current build rates.” He concluded with a comment about cancellations, “There were concerns that more 2021 commitments might need to be shifted into 2022, resulting in an additional surge in cancels. It now appears that most of that adjustment occurred in September, and excluding September, the industry has had an average 1.0% cancel rate since May.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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