ACT Research: US Used Truck Retail Sales Still Firing on All Cylinders
Preliminary used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) grew 23% month-over-month, but were 23% lower compared to March of 2021, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3–8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research.
Other data released in ACT’s preliminary report included month-over-month comparisons for March 2022, which showed that the average retail price rose 11%, as average miles and age were both lower, down 3% and 7%, respectively, from February. Compared to March of 2021, the average retail price was 90% higher, with average miles and age greater by 3% each.
ACT’s Classes 3–8 Used Truck Report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs — Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
According to Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research, “Positively, used truck sales continued to benefit from recent moderate supply-chain improvements. Preliminary same dealer retail sales strung together a second consecutive monthly gain (+23%), and a strong one it was, well above the historical seasonal increase of 13%.” He elaborated, “It almost goes without saying that the used truck industry is still plagued by demand greatly in excess of supply. As a result, longer-term comparisons are more representative of current market conditions.”
Tam continued, “A quick look at the average selling price for all reported units (auction, retail and wholesale) presents a pretty compelling argument that the current cycle has just about topped-out. The question on everyone’s mind is how quickly will the market correct.” He concluded, “The answer truly depends on what happens with the economy, freight, freight rates, and truckers. For the record, ACT Research is not forecasting a recession in 2022 or 2023, or through 2027 for that matter. While recent developments have increased the likelihood, we believe there is sufficient strength to avoid economic contraction.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 67th Seminar is scheduled for August 23–25, 2022. The focus will be the potential impact of decarbonization and autonomous technology on commercial vehicles and on-highway transportation. Each event ACT shares its best-in-class data and forecast in presentations, as well as featuring guest speakers to dive into topics of interest for the benefit of attendees. The agenda includes key industry leaders, who will be announced at a later date. For more information about Seminar 67 Watts Under The Hood: Transportation Transformation, click here: https://www.actresearch.net/seminar-67/
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Additionally, ACT Research published an update to CHARGING FORWARD, a North American-centric battery and fuel cell electric vehicle adoption rate forecast, covering 23 vehicle applications, in Classes 4–8 commercial vehicles, through 2040. CHARGING FORWARD is considered by many industry leaders to be the apex of analysis and economic-based total cost of ownership modeling in the industry. And, it is now available for purchase at https://www.actresearch.net/electric-vehicles-charge/.
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