ACT Research: Used Class 8 Retail Sales Fell in October, Countering Seasonal Expectations
According to the latest release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3–8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research, used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) were down 19% m/m. Average mileage was flat, with average price down 2% and age up 5%, m/m. Longer term, average price and miles were higher y/y, with price up 15% y/y.
ACT’s Classes 3–8 Used Truck Report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs — Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers, to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
“Same dealer retail sales of used Class 8 trucks fell in September, shedding 19% m/m,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “Used truck sales typically see a moderate increase in October, relative to September, so the decline was counter to expectations. Used Class 8 retail truck sales for October were meaningfully weaker for longer-term comparisons.”
Tam added, “The near-term drop may foreshadow further softening of demand brought on by a general economic slowdown. We believe broader weakness will be led, at least in part, by reduced manufacturing output and the resultant reduction of freight.” He concluded, “Supply conditions appear to be improving, albeit, at the margin. New truck production rates have been higher in the past several months, as has sales activity. There also appears to have been a corresponding uptick in the number of used trucks in inventory.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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