ACT Research: Used Class 8 Retail Sales Volumes and Prices Rose YTD in October, While Average Miles Were Lower and Age Was Flat
According to the latest release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3–8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research, used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) were 6% lower month-over-month. Longer term, volumes were down 20% y/y, but up 13% ytd. Average prices were 3% higher compared to September, 54% more expensive than in October of 2020, and 36% greater ytd. Average miles were 1% greater m/m and up 4% y/y, while average age increased 2% from September and was 6% older compared to October of 2020.
The report from ACT provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs — Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers, to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
“Used Class 8 same dealer retail sales volumes struggled in October, returning to sequential decline, following two months of gains. The softness contradicted seasonal expectations, which called for an equivalent gain,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “However, lackluster new truck sales and the lack of used truck inventory have conspired for most of 2021 to foil historical seasonality.”
Looking at the different sales channels for used Class 8 vehicles, Tam commented, “Near-term channel results were also unfavorable for both the auction and wholesale outlets. All three markets also experienced lower volumes compared to October 2020. Through the first ten months of the year, only the retail segment has improved.”
He concluded, “Earlier comments regarding seasonality notwithstanding, history suggests the tumultuousness will be in play through the end of the year. Typically, November is the second weakest retail sales month of the year, with December ending the year roughly 6% above average.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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