According to the latest State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3–8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research, used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) increased 12% m/m in January. Average mileage increased 8% m/m, with average price down 7%, and age up 1%. Longer term, average price and volumes were lower, with age and miles higher y/y.
The report from ACT provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs — Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers, to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
“Same dealer Class 8 retail truck sales saw a second month of sequential gain in January, up 12% from December,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “Sales typically see a moderate decrease (≈7%) in January, so the increase was departure from seasonality. However, expectations called for the disconnect. The assumption was based on strong new truck sales in November and December, which helped to relieve some of the pent-up demand the used truck market suffered through most of 2022.”
He added, “As conditions in the secondary market tighten, it is interesting to see those truck owners who were selling their own equipment turn back to dealers and auctions to handle transactions. While participating dealers reported a 12% m/m increase in sales, we estimate the total industry saw about a similar decline in sales.”
Tam concluded, “Many in the industry are voicing concerns about the health and viability of owner/operators and small fleets, particularly as freight rates fall and operating costs rise. While the economy may avoid a recession, inflation remains a very real concern. With that in mind, we expect, the market to fall as much as 10%.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s next seminar, Market Vitals: The Current & Future Health of the Industry, is scheduled for August 22–24, 2023. Look for more details over the coming months and save the date for August’s event. When details are available, they may be found HERE.
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