ACT Research: Class 8 Truck Orders at 11,600 Units in April, down 27% Y/Y
Preliminary NA Class 8 net orders in April were 11,600 units, down 27% y/y
(-39% m/m), while preliminary Classes 5–7 net orders were 18,000 units, down 10% y/y (-6% m/m). Complete industry data for April, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-May.
“Given robust Class 8 orders into year end, ensuing backlog support, and normal seasonal order patterns, orders were expected to moderate into Q2; we expected SA orders in a range of 15–20k units per month into mid-Q3’23. Coupling those items with increasingly cautious readings from the ACT Class 8 Dashboard, April orders were weaker than expected on a standalone basis but bring the ytd monthly SA average to 17,500, squarely in line with our view,” shared Eric Crawford, ACT’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “The recent turmoil in the banking sector likely tightened credit conditions for some industry participants and may have played a factor in exacerbating April’s weakness. Thus, while we expect orders to remain at subdued levels into mid-Q3’23, we are not inclined to think April’s order activity represents the likely run rate going forward.”
He added, “Medium-duty demand declined y/y by single digits, moderating after two straight months of double-digit declines. April Classes 5–7 orders declined 10% y/y (-6% m/m) to 18,000 units.”
ACT’s State of the Industry: Classes 5–8 Vehicles report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6–7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing activity-related measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6–7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations. The Class 8 market is segmented into trucks and tractors, with and without sleeper cabs. The report includes a six-month industry build plan, a backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.